*The following mock draft selections are pure speculation on my part and should not be taken as fact.  These projections are based on a combination of several factors including owner's past draft tendencies, player preferences, average player ranking, and a few inside tips.  Lastly, this mock board and the order in which the players are chosen is not a reflection of my own personal player preferences or rankings and should not be taken as such.  Each draft pick is a prediction of one potential outcome and is meant to represent that particular owner's mindset.  The highlighted players indicate the start of a new round.   

*For obvious competitive purposes, I have chosen not to reflect my own potential strategy in this mock draft, as a result, all of my team's selections beyond the first two rounds are blanked out.     

*Updated: August 26, 2008   

Upbeat Tempo 1	Booze- Meisters 2	Brew Crew 3	Thunder Pumpers 4	Bald Bombers 5	Juggernauts 6	FU 7	Chad’s 69ers 8	Sammy’s Boiz 9	Team Dysfunction 10
LaDainian Tomlinson(1)	Adrian Peterson	Steven Jackson	Tom Brady	Brian Westbrook	Joesph Addai	Marion Barber	Frank Gore	Clinton Portis	Randy Moss
Andre Johnson	Tony Romo	Larry Fitzgerald	Jamal Lewis	Braylon Edwards	Terrell Owens	Ryan Grant	Peyton Manning	Reggie Wayne	Marshawn Lynch
Carson Palmer	Maurice Jones-Drew	Larry Johnson	TJ Housh	Drew Brees	X	Plaxico Burress	Willis McGahee	Wes Welker	Chad Johnson
Antonio Gates	Anquan Boldin	Roy Williams	Santonio Holmes	Steve Smith	X	Jason Witten	Torry Holt	Laurence Maroney	Derek Anderson
Viking’s Defense	Greg Jennings	Michael Turner	Willie Parker	Darren McFadden	X	Marvin Harrison	Brandon Marshall	Tony Gonzalez	Calvin Johnson
Lee Evans	Earnest Graham	L. Coles	Chris Cooley	Brandon Jacobs	X	Matt Hasselbk.	Kellen Winslow	Bernard Berrian	Ricky Williams
Kevin Smith	Hines Ward	Jonathan Stewart	LenDale White	Roddy White	X	Matt Forte	Nate Buerleson	Chester Taylor	Dallas Clark
Chris Chambers	Charger’s Defense	David Garrard	Santana Moss	Patriots’s Defense	X	Donald Driver	Edgerrin James	Eli Manning	Rashard Mendenhall

 

 

Totals through first 8 rounds:

31 Receivers

30 Running backs

10 Quarterbacks

6 Tight ends

3 Defenses

 

2008 NFL Bold Predictions:

 

 

• The Cleveland Browns will be this year’s New Orleans Saints.  They have a very difficult early schedule, which will likely result in a slow start to their season. 
• The New York Jets will make the playoffs and challenge the Patriots for the division lead.
• The AFC East will be tougher than most people think.  The Jets, Bills, and even Dolphins are all improved.  No team in this division will win fewer than 6 games. 
• Tony Romo will have an MVP season and lead the Cowboys deep into the playoffs.
• The New York Giants will return to the playoffs, but lose in the second round.
• Eli Manning will have the best statistical season of his career. 
• QB Tavaris Jackson will show improvement, but miss 3 games due to injuries.
• QB Brady Quinn will replace an injured Derek Anderson at some point this season.
• The San Francisco 49ers will finish with the NFL’s worst record.
• RB Michael Turner will finish as a top 10 fantasy running back. 
• WR Desean Jackson will be the top rookie receiver and could be another “Steve Smith” waiting to happen.
• Jericho Cotchery will be this year’s Greg Jennings. 
• The New York Jets will finish with a better record than the Packers.
• The New England Patriots will lose their first game of the season in week 2 (to the Jets).   
• The Oakland Raiders will win at least 7 games and the coach will still be fired.
• Tight end Jeremy Shockey will have a career year and make the Pro-Bowl.
• Rookie Chris Johnson will lead the Titans in rushing by a wide margin.
• QB Donovan McNabb will get benched at some point during the season.
• QBs Jason Campbell & Matt Schaub will have breakout seasons & throw 24 tds apiece.
• QB Jake Cutler will finish strong and be a top 10 Quarter back by the end of the season.
• RB Ray Rice will finish the season with more rushing yards than Willis McGahee.
• RB Ricky Williams will edge out Jake Delhomme for “Come back Player of the Year” honors.
• Jared Allen will finish with 10 ½ sacks on the season.
• The Carolina Panthers will make the playoffs.
• Bengals coach Marvin Lewis will resign/be fired before the end of the season.
• Ben Utech will finish as a top 10 fantasy tight end. 
• RB LaMont Jordan will finish with more rushing touchdowns than Laurence Maroney.
• QB Aaron Rodgers will leave with an injury during the second quarter of the Monday night opener. 
• WR Javon Walker will be released before the end of the season.
• Marion Barber will be a top 5 fantasy back by season’s end.
• Santonio Holmes will be this year’s “breakout receiver.”
• Calvin Johnson will out-perform Roy Williams this year.
• Daunte Culpepper will find a new team before the season ends, but Shawn Alexander & Travis Henry wont. 

Looking back

• Tony Romo- Has good upside playing with T.O and Glenn.  It's a matter of rather or not he can handle the pressure.  The guess here is he will.

•  I'm aware that (Adrian)Peterson will have to share carries at least at the start of the season with Chester Taylor, however, I believe the upside his talent provides combined with his superior offensive line make him the safer choice for either the late third or early 4th round.

• Tom Brady should have his best season at QB

• Joseph Addai: I predict he'll be among the league leaders in carries in 07'.

• "...drafting  (Vince)Young as your starting fantasy quarterback this season could come with several red flags. Buyer beware."

• I believe the Vikings will regret not drafting a top ranked college Quarter back or signing an established free agent ( ala, Jeff Garcia) in the off-season.

• Larry Fitzgerald- A top red zone target for Leinart, he will lead the team in touchdowns again

• Without questions two defenses that pop up in my mind as definite sleepers are Dallas and Minnesota.

• Vernon Davis- Has the most upside of any TE not named Gates and could put up #2 receiver-type numbers. 

• Add in their very difficult schedule and it all points to (Marshawn) Lynch having a disappointing rookie season.

• Detroit Lions (10-6)

Charchian chimes in on Fantasy Football 08

Zoneblitz: You’ve long espoused the “Do the Opposite” strategy that I so mediocre-ly described on the blog a few weeks back – can you give us a quick synopsis of the strategy?

Charchian:
“Do The Opposite” got its name from the episode of Seinfeld in which George Costanza is so fed up with his life that he begins doing the exact opposite of everything that he’s done in the past. And, sure enough, upon doing so—wham—he gets a girl friend and gets hired by the Yankees.

Everyone clamors for running backs in the first few rounds—especially the first round. Owners with the balls to implement an Opposite Draft will eschew runners for a whopping four rounds. In the first three rounds, you’ll take receivers, quarterbacks, and even tight ends. Then, with a bunch of elite players at the other positions, in the middle rounds, you’ll take a string of runners.

Although I could talk about it for hours, I’ll limit myself to two key planks in my position:

First, runners are more prone to injury and disappointment than any other position. Most readers will understand this intrinsically. But here’s some data for those that need convincing. Looking at the top 10 running backs taken in drafts over the last four years (data gathered from MDC again), only 15 scored double digits. Meanwhile, 15 runners had disastrous seasons, scoring six or fewer touchdowns. Nearly all of the top-10 runners were taken in the first rounds. So, getting six or fewer touchdowns from a top-10 runner is, indeed, disastrous.

The other positions, namely receiver and quarterback, however, had far fewer failures. Of the top 10 non-runners drafted over the past four years, only eight (!) failed to score seven or more touchdowns. And 14 scored double digits—just one fewer than the coveted “elite” runners.

Second, you can find sleeper runners in the middle rounds. Yes, you can. If I gave you, yes you, four cracks at a sleeper running back in rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7, couldn’t you find one, if not two, solid contributors? Of course you can.

Heck, you can even find solid contributors off the waiver wire. Ryan Grant, anyone? Think he was a fluke? How about Earnest Graham, Justin Fargas, Ron Dayne, and Derrick Ward? All were solid contributors for long stretches of the season, and none were drafted in your league.

And, you’re already stacked at the other positions, because you spent the first three rounds collecting elite players. So, when your sleepers/free agent runners hit, you’re sitting with a powerhouse team.

Zoneblitz: In most reasonably standard scoring formats when would be an appropriate time to bust out the Do the Opposite strategy this season?

Charchian: This year, it’s “game on” for a Do The Opposite draft beginning with pick six, after the five big runners are off the board. You know who they are.

Zoneblitz: Are there any rookies you think can have an immediate fantasy impact?

Charchian: See Jonathan Stewart above. Matt Forte and Kevin Smith could both be the primary runners for their teams, which is significant, too. I’d dive into them, but I’m already at like 1,500 words. Sheesh!

Zoneblitz: If Brett Favre does play this season are there teams he could go to where you think he would have a fantasy impact on the players that he would be around?

Charchian: Since he’s not going to New England or Indy, Favre will have a positive effect on every team he’d likely play for. Minnesota would be fascinating, since defenses won’t know who to guard against, Adrian Peterson or Brett Favre.

Zoneblitz: Do you have a pre-season Super Bowl pick?

Charchian: It’s boring, but I’m leaning toward Indy. The returns of Dwight Freeney and Marvin Harrison are huge.

Zoneblitz: You co-founded Fanball.com. Now you’ve got something called Leaguesafe.com – what is this venture?

Charchian: LeagueSafe® is an on-line escrow service that secures and manages fantasy leagues’ finances. In a nutshell, it’s PayPal for fantasy leagues. In the preseason, league fees are deposited in a FDIC-insured bank account, where they stay throughout the season. At the end of the year, LeagueSafe® returns 100% of the league fees to the league. LeagueSafe® greatly simplifies and streamlines finance management, deposits, and payments. It’s free!

 

 

I consider myself a fairly capable fantasy football player and I’ll put my history up against that of nearly anyone else. But a couple seasons ago I was stumped. I entered the championship game on a roll, having won seven of nine matchups including my semifinal game a week earlier.

But during that game my running backs were decimated with injuries and I was left with little more than waiver-wire options to stock my lineup with for Championship Sunday.

I had a couple ideas but thought I could use some additional guidance - so for the first time ever I emailed the guys at Fantasy Football Weekly, billed as the longest-running show on KFAN-AM radio in the Twin Cities (the show starts up again this Saturday, Aug. 2, at 10 a.m. central time and is podcast-able shortly afterward by clicking “Fan on Demand” at www.KFAN.com).

Paul Charchian, co-host of Fantasy Football Weekly and now founder of LeagueSafe®, and his colleagues recommended I pick up and start both Ron Dayne and Michael Pittman, one at running back and the other in a flex-position. They scored 18 and 9 points respectively helping me to a 64-63 win that netted a nice championship check and bragging rights over a group of east coasters wondering why a country bumpkin from the midwest was even in their league.

A few weeks ago Charchian noticed a post on this site and when contacted by Zoneblitz he graciously agreed to answer some questions and share his thoughts on what to expect during the season ahead.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Zoneblitz: Peterson or Tomlinson (or someone else) with the top pick in the draft and why?

Paul Charchian: There is no player in the NFL that I’d rather watch than Adrian Peterson. But, it’s Tomlinson, and it’s not close. Tomlinson’s consistency is unparalleled at the position. I’m a big fan of drafting guys I can count upon, week in and week out. Tomlinson’s hasn’t had a bad season since…uh…never. He’s never had less than 10 touchdowns, and he’s averaging 2070 yards from scrimmage since his rookie year. Unreal!

Zoneblitz: What players at QB, RB, WR/TE do you see as potential under-the-radar guys who could really bust out with big fantasy seasons?

Charchian: (Average Draft Position data courtesy of MockDraftCentral.)

QB – Jake Delhomme. ADP QB ranking: 17. Charch’s ranking: 11.
When healthy, he’s a great quarterback, and his rehab from elbow surgery is going fine. A quick refresher of last year’s pre-injury stats: in 2.75 games, he racked up eight touchdown passes with just one interception. He’s got a plethora of receiving options, including three new options in Mushin Muhammad, DJ Hackett, and Jonathan Stewart who is getting tons of receptions in training camp.

RB – Jonathan Stewart. ADP RB ranking: 29. Charch’s ranking: 18.
Yes, another Panther. People are actually shying away from Stewart because of DeAngelo Williams? Really? While a dynamic runner, Williams hasn’t shown anything to suggest that he’ll be a fantasy factor. Stewart will run behind an improved line, he’s clearly the goal line guy, and John Fox loves to pound the ball whenever possible.

WR – Jabar Gaffney. ADP WR ranking: 52. Charch’s ranking: 29.
Gaffney made a strong move at the tail end of last season, displacing a lot of Donte Stallworth’s playing time, and eventually making Stallworth expendable in the offseason. Gaffney scored in four of the Patriots’ final six regular season games, and added another touchdown in the playoffs. He certainly was trending toward fantasy viability at the end of last year. Those solid numbers came despite the presence of Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Think of what could happen if the increasingly brittle Moss were to go down.

TE – Donald Lee. ADP TE ranking: 17. Charch’s ranking: 8.
Lee turned a corner in the second half of last season, catching five touchdowns in the final seven games. His improvements led to Bubba Franks being cut in the offseason, which opens the door for Lee’s full time use this year. Even with Franks on the roster last year, Lee caught a pass in every game, and caught multiple passes in 13 games. Inexperienced quarterbacks, like Aaron Rogers, tend to dump off to their safety valve tight end.

Zoneblitz: Who do you see at those same positions being potential busts this season?

Charchian:
QB – Matt Hasselbeck. ADP QB ranking: 8. Charch’s ranking: 17.
Hasselbeck is a good quarterback, but there is such an alarming dearth of surrounding talent that I can’t envision him delivering consistent fantasy points. First, there’s no running game to keep defenses honest. No, Julius Jones doesn’t help in any real way. Opponents will key on Hasselbeck in every game. His offensive line was lousy last year, and the addition of Mike Wahle doesn’t improve it—just ask Jake Delhomme/Matt Moore/Vinny Testaverde/David Carr. Lastly, his receivers get hurt a lot, and none of them are a true No. 1.

RB - Earnest Graham. ADP RB ranking: 18th RB. Charch’s ranking: 34.
Concerns abound. Jon Gruden has repeatedly described the Bucs running back situation as RBBC. Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett will play a role, and Caddy lurks as a second-half vulture. Gruden has a long history of RBBC, going back to his Oakland days. Remember Zack Crockett stealing goal line carries? In general, Tampa’s offense is already shaky, but what happens if Garcia goes down? Can Brian Griese really power an already aged, wobbly offense? Luke McCown? Chris Simms? Lastly, Graham’s new contract was very team friendly. Anyone who thinks the Bucs will use him because they paid him isn’t familiar with his deal.

WR – Jerricho Cotchery (before the Favre trade). ADP WR ranking: 31. Charch’s ranking: 51.
What am I missing here? He’s the No. 2 receiver on a team with horrible quarterbacking. How does he crack the top 32? Doesn’t every NFL team have someone better than Cotchery? As a starter for the better part of three years, he’s averaged 2.6 touchdowns per year. Sure, he’s caught 82 passes the last two years, which gives him a smidgeon of PPR value, but enough to be ranked 31? He failed to top 60 yards eight times last year. I don’t see enough improvement on the Jets roster to account for the public’s fascination with him.

TE - Vernon Davis. ADP TE ranking: 8. Charch’s ranking: 15.
Let’s start by looking at his resume to date. Injuries? Check. Invisible stat lines? Check. Inconsistent performances? Check. Gee, sounds great so far! But, that’s the past. Let’s look ahead. Davis has gained an offensive coordinator who doesn’t know that the tight end position is on the field. In a recent interview, Mike Martz acknowledged that his offenses don’t highlight tight ends, and that he doesn’t expect that to change (although Martz says that he hopes Davis’ YPC will improve). And, then there’s the team’s dreadful quarterback position. Shawn Hill and Alex Smith should be battling to see who gets to do my taxes; not who gets to lead an NFL offense.

 

Part 2 of the interview upcoming (including a discussion on leaguesafe.com).