The Players
Week 13 Fantasy Football report by Gridiron Guru.
Playoff Preview
This marks the final week of our league's regular season and with many of this week's games lacking significance, I thought I would mix up the format and look a head to next week's playoffs. We now know which six teams will be competing for the championship and below I will make a case for and against each team's chances heading into the post-season. First though, as per usual I have managed to dig up some interesting footnotes as we near the end of the regular season.
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All four teams that qualifyed for the playoffs last season will return once again this year.
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Upbeat Tempo continued a four year trend, as a team with the 1st overall pick in the fantasy draft that made the playoffs.
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Brew Crew is the only team that has qualifyed for the post-season every year since 2004.
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Juggernauts becomes the first team to overcome an 0-3 start and make the playoffs (Greenbaystillsucks made the playoffs after a 1-3 start in 05')
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I Don't Care could become the first team to finish with the best overall record &/or win division title and be in the bottom half in scoring.
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ThunderPumpers became the third straight "first year team" to win a division title.
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No division champion has ever won a "Fantasy Bowl" and only one (Upbeat Tempo last season) has played in one.
-Teams-
East Outlook
I Don't Care: playoff record (2-0)
Why he'll win: No team has a better overall winning % over the last two seasons than this team. The team has also proven that it can win the big games, having won the championship last season. QB Carson Palmer has also proven to be somewhat of a good luck charm, having played on the last two title winners. If this team manages to hold on and secure a playoff bye in week 14, it will dramatically improve its chances of a repeat, with that extra week to get players healthy.
Why he won't: Outside of Palmer, the running game was a big reason why this team won last season, with Marshawn Lynch banged up, the running game has been non-existent the second half of this season. Injuries are also starting to take a toll on a team that is already struggling to score. The team with the best record has had difficulty maintaining that momentum into the post-season in recent years.
Brew Crew: playoff record (2-2)
Why he'll win: This has been the highest scoring team for much of the season and one of the most consistent week to week. The team is also the healthiest going into the playoffs and has been for most of the season. Coach Adam has the experience to exploit good match-ups and has built a team that is deep enough to overcome injuries at most positions. The playoff match ups are also very favorable.
Why he won't: This team has struggled to win in the playoffs since 2004. QB Derek Anderson has been on fire, but can he be trusted to maintain that fire against "the more proven" Brady & Palmer? We remember what happened to Drew Brees in the playoffs last year, don't we? Kellen Winslow & the receivers need to stay healthy, because the depth is otherwise lacking at those positions.
FU: playoff record (0-2)
Why he'll win: This team has the best player in fantasy football this year in QB Tom Brady. That alone has the potential to keep this team in games. FU has also led the league in scoring for most of the season. RB Marion Barber is a goal-line beast who has a favorable playoff schedule, as well.
Why he won't: This team heads into the playoffs lacking positive momentum and is currently riding a 4-game losing streak. The trading of WR Houshmanzdeh is already proving to be a costly mistake. The team was also inept in divisional games (2-5) which doesn't bode well. QB Tom Brady will need to carry the load for a team that is thin in a lot of other areas. Questionable roster management has marred this team in past playoff seasons following good regular seasons.
West Outlook
ThunderPumpers: playoff record (0-0)
Why he'll win: This team is incredibly balanced with starters capable of having big games at every position. The wide-receivers are deadly, especially with the emergence of Greg Jennings as a strong complement to Randy Moss. The running game has been underrated with Clinton Portis, as has tight end, Chris Cooley. The team has also been on a scoring tear over the last month and is capable of winning a shoot-out with any team. Pumpers will need just one win to advance to its first Fantasy Bowl, having secured a 1st round bye.
Why he won't: The team may be peaking too soon and with all the time off, there is a danger that players will cool off by week 15. Will QB Brett Favre have anything to play for if this team makes it to week 16? The team may also lack a shutdown #2 running back to complement Portis. If defenses begin to focus on covering Moss that may limit his productivity down the stretch. Having a lot of players on good teams (Favre, Jennings, Moss, Ward) could spell trouble by the time this team plays another meaningful game in two weeks, as game plans often change during these crucial weeks.
Juggernauts: playoff record (0-2)
Why he'll win: This team has been a survivor all season, having to overcome a rash of injuries early on, and a horrendous 1-4 start in which it looked like the worst team in league history. So through a trying season the team has been able to win the games it needed, when faced with elimination. And unlike past seasons, the team doesn't enter this postseason as necessarily one of the favorites, so the pressure isn't a factor this time around. The team may also be the healthiest it's been all season, as for the first time since week 2 there are no players on injured reserve. QB Tony Romo, RB Adrian Peterson, & WR Andre Johnson will make this "usually high-profile" team very dangerous as an "under the radar" wild card with a sizable experience advantage over the other west teams.
Why he won't win: The past playoff failures have been well documented, Coach J has excelled at building teams for the regular season only to watch them implode in week 14. Part of the reason has been unfortunate luck & poor starts, and part of it has been a tendancy to overthink postseason match-ups. The running game appears set with good depth, but the receivers have been terribly inconsistent of late as has tight end, Jeremy Shockey. The team is 3-0 when he scores & just 3-6 when he doesn't. The team has just a 1-5 record against the other playoff teams, many of which were earlier in the season. Can Peterson be the same force as he was prior to his injury?
Upbeat Tempo: playoff record (1-1)
Why he'll win: Coach Eric's patient & conservative approach has paid off for most of the season, especially in the case of QB Drew Brees, who struggled early, but was never benched. The team has thrived in its ability to withstand rough stretches and methodically win games even with unfavorable match-ups. RB LaDainian Tomlinson is capable of exploding any given week and the Viking's defense is on a major roll and is a dangerous unit. The success that this team had in last year's playoffs should serve it well this year with better big-game experience.
Why he won't win: The loss of Peterson (to a divisional opponent no less) is significant and could ultimately prevent this team from having a long playoff run. LT is not the same force he was last year, & Brees has been feast or famine all season. The lack of a quality tight end or an established #2 receiver is going to be exposed at some point during the playoffs. This team has played hard and overachieved all season, but it may not have the fire power to compete with the higher-scoring teams. Coach Eric's reluctance to mix up his lineup and play the match ups may also backfire at some point. There is such a thing as playing it too safe.
(Vegas, Minnesota Odds):
Brew Crew (1/20) w/ bye *(1/25) w/o bye
ThunderPumpers (1/25)
Juggernauts (1/35)
I Don't Care (1/35) w/ bye *(1/40) w/o bye
FU (1/45)
Upbeat Tempo (1/48)
* East Divison is: pending the results of week 13 outcomes.
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